The Daily View: IMO outlook: Same-same but different

THE IMO looks less likely to bring its climate debate to a hard stop feared since October, but the outlook is still bad for global greenhouse gas regulations to spur decarbonisation.

The fear at the start of MEPC84 was the US and its allies would stop the delayed Net-Zero Framework vote from being resumed and so kill off the plan.

Instead, things look more normal: the tone is more collegiate, the statements vaguer and the point and direction of it all harder to discern.

This is normal for an MEPC without a clear decision point; no need to fight over the tough stuff until you absolutely must.

Countries mostly agreed they should convene further meetings to find a way forward before the next big vote in October to find a way forward.

But the basic divide — should there be a carbon price or not — still looks fundamental, with no obvious compromise in sight.

Those in the Yes camp won’t stand for a huge, unwieldy regulation that doesn’t do anything for the climate, which they argue would be the result of Liberia’s tax-free alternative plan.

There’s also nothing to suggest the US and Saudi Arabia will budge from their view: no carbon taxes under any circumstances.

The Liberia plan (aka “Panlibarg”) could be a way forward, but it’s more likely just a delaying tactic aimed at reopening old debates. That points to further limbo on emissions regulation for shipping companies.

The more things go this way, the more “nothing will happen” looks less like limbo, and more like regulatory certainty.

Declan Bush
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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