Strategy's Michael Saylor Says "Bitcoin Has Won." Does That Make It a Buy?
In practice, both before and since the most recent halving in April 2024 Bitcoin's price has approximately behaved in the way cycle theory predicts it should, albeit with its post-halving upside compressing a bit.
This asset is still a buy
So does all of the above translate into Saylor being correct about Bitcoin having won against its now-historical legitimacy challenges?
More or less, yes. Bitcoin has "won" because its integration into the financial system means its survival is no longer at stake.
The disconnect between the coin's price and ETF-associated inflows is most likely just a short-term phenomenon related to asset managers having enough Bitcoin on hand to create new ETF shares as needed without purchasing more of the coin on the open market. In other words, capital inflows probably do have an impact on price over the long term even if the noisy short-term data imply otherwise.
Therefore the synthesis here is that Saylor is probably directionally correct about Bitcoin's trajectory even if some aspects of his arguments are overstated.
The right approach here isn't to adopt Saylor's confidence and blindly buy the coin so much as it is to adopt his long time horizon and perhaps his habit of consistently purchasing some BTC at every price. Dollar-cost averaging with a modest allocation as part of a well-balanced crypto portfolio, held for five years or more, will give you ample exposure to both the structural thesis of the halving as well as to the institutional accumulation and capital flows thesis.
The more patient you can make yourself be, the more you'll win when Bitcoin does.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Strategy's Michael Saylor Says "Bitcoin Has Won." Does That Make It a Buy? was originally published by The Motley Fool
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