OPEC+ agrees to June oil production hike, may end up largely on paper due to Iran war

“OPEC+ is sending a two-layer message to the market: continuity despite the UAE’s exit, and control despite limited physical impact," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and former OPEC official.

“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints. This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”

Top OPEC+ producer Saudi Arabia’s quota will rise to 10.291 million bpd in June under the agreement, far above actual production. The kingdom reported actual production of 7.76 million bpd to OPEC in March.

The seven members who met on Sunday were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members including Iran. But in recent years only the seven nations plus the UAE have been involved in monthly production decisions.