China's Naval Drills Show Growing Focus on Capturing Taiwan
China's military has been conducting exercises near the self-governing island of Taiwan for years, simulating naval blockades, air incursions and landings. But a round of drills conducted last fall appeared to be a much more "focused, realistic and sophisticated" simulation of an amphibious assault on the island, down to the distances between exercise locations and the conditions found near shore, according to a new analysis by four scholars at the U.S. Naval War College. The report arrives amidst news of concern within the Pentagon about the status of U.S. interceptor and long-range strike missile stocks, which would be needed to mount a defense of Taiwan.
The PLA amphibious exercise launched in August, and was bigger and more complex than ever. The drill consisted of three simultaneous landings at three different sites spanning roughly 220 miles of shored on China's eastern seaboard, roughly corresponding to the distance between the north and south ends of Taiwan - and, concerningly, the distances between Taiwan's main seaports.
"The exercise reflected a specific geographical and operational focus. It appears to be part of a larger trend whereby the PLA is mapping its exercises onto analogous geography that reflects envisioned targets," the authors assessed.
The exercise drew together capabilities that China has previously exercised independently, but not as part of a large, cohesive operation spanning multiple locations. Civilian ro/ro vessels and landing craft participated, as seen in past iterations, alongside conventional LCTs and amphibious armored vehicles. The Bohai Ferry Group - well known for links to the military - made a prominent appearance with ro/ro tonnage. The PLA Navy's floating causeway system appeared as well.
The exercise organizers also appeared willing to take more risk in simulating the conditions found on the coast of Taiwan. An AFV landing exercise at Hougang Bay went forward through a heavy concentration of aquaculture rafts of the kind found near shore on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. While realistic, the incorporation of the rafts raises risk for the AFV operators, and this is the first time that the PLA Navy employed these obstacles at scale.
"The PLA executed a large-scale invasion exercise that marks a clear shift from generic training to operationally grounded Taiwan contingency rehearsals," the authors concluded. "Overall, the exercise evinced progress in the PLA’s ability to coordinate large-scale, distributed logistics in support of a Taiwan invasion campaign."
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The apparent preparations of the PLA Navy are especially concerning in light of separate news reports about current U.S. preparedness. Officials within the Pentagon have raised new concerns about America's ability to counter any future Chinese attempt to seize the island. Previously, in war-gaming for a worst-case Taiwan Strait contingency, stocks of standoff munitions and interceptors have been critical to success. Those stock levels - already a matter of concern - have recently been drawn down by the conflict with Iran, with especially large reductions in the supply of SM-3, SM-6, Patriot and THAAD interceptors. While war with China is not expected anytime soon, some officials now think that "America couldn't fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack" if called to do so in the near term, according to the Wall Street Journal.
That outlook is not universally shared, and other U.S. officials told the Journal that they do not believe the drawdown has a serious impact. "For now, I don't see any real cost being imposed on our ability to deter China," Adm. Samuel Paparo, the top uniformed officer in the Indo-Pacific, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
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