OPINION | Asian refined fuel prices dive after ceasefire, but supply remains tight

The drop in crude arrivals is already showing up in shipments of refined products, with Kpler data estimating April exports from Asian refiners at 6.61 million bpd, down from the 7.32 million bpd in March.

April and March were the two softest months for refined fuel exports in Asia since April 2017, according to Kpler data, and are well down from the 11.1 million bpd recorded in February.

It's the loss of around five million bpd of refined product exports in Asia that is keeping fuel prices elevated, and even if crude does start to flow out of the Middle East at pre-conflict levels, the supply chain will take months to catch up.

The risk is that the situation worsens in the near term, especially if the ceasefire fails and the Strait of Hormuz remains off-limits to most vessels.

(Writing by Clyde Russell, Editing by Kim Coghill)